Can Trump really win the Republican nomination?

Controversial business magnate Donald Trump remains the front-runner in the Republican race. The latest polls have shown him maintaining his lead and presently he is the favourite to win the first primary in New Hampshire on February 9th.

The Republicans as of yet do not have a brilliant candidate. Rubio, Carson and Cruz all have their supporters but don’t tick all the boxes. This ensures the race will be very open and gives the opportunity for an outsider like Trump to come through. Trump is very different to all of his rivals. He has not had a background in politics and therefore is not affected in this regard and does not carry the same baggage. The current mood is drifting away from mainstream politicians (also see the rise of Sanders!) and this will only aid Trump.

Trump’s numbers are steady. Despite a number of attacks on him and some fairly outspoken and what many would consider offensive statements, he has stayed comfortably ahead of his rivals. This shows he is far from a flash in the pan and has a very solid support base in the Republican Party.

Security fears have also reached new levels. This in itself will help the Republican Party but could also specifically help Trump. Trump has not been afraid to adopt a more hard-line stance than his rivals on security measures and in the current environment this could be very popular.

Trump does have obstacles to overcome though. This is a long campaign and as of yet he has 0 delegates and therefore his lead in the polls counts for nothing. History has previously shown us the front-runner often falls away and this definitely could happen with Trump. Also as the contest goes longer and longer voters’ minds may be more concentrated and this could lead to a more moderate candidate being selected.

It is highly unlikely Trump will win the nomination. Trump’s numbers are holding up better than expected though and for that reason he can no longer be seen as a joke figure. Eventually I believe the Republicans will unite around a different candidate, probably Rubio but until that happens Trump will continue to generate headlines and we will have to consider all eventualities including a Trump victory.

Article by Mike Hough

Photograph – Snopes.com

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